Compound hazards
The storm isn't the risk. The stack is.
Why I’m watching how hazards sequence and stack, and what that means for climate risk across a council’s asset portfolio.
Zen Bell
All-hazards resilience · Climate adaptation
Understanding risk.
Building resilience.
I’m Zen Bell, a disaster resilience and climate adaptation specialist on the Northern Beaches. I share updates, research and practical tools across all hazards, and on how community, education, science and technology build resilience.
All hazards · Disaster resilience · Climate adaptation · Community & education · Science & technology
On my reading list
Latest science.
Nature · Aug 2026
WeatherNext Cyclones: AI forecasts of cyclone track, intensity and wind structure
Google DeepMind’s WeatherNext model reached state-of-the-art accuracy for cyclone track, intensity and wind structure. On 2023–2024 cyclones it gained more than 24 hours of lead time, so its three-day forecasts matched what earlier models gave for two days. A 1,000-member ensemble produces probability maps of tropical-storm to hurricane-force winds up to 15 days ahead. The code and model weights are open source, and live forecasts can be explored in Google’s Weather Lab.
Why it matters
Read the source ↗ (opens in a new tab)An extra day of warning is time for evacuation, pre-positioning and asset protection. The paper does not report results for the Australian region, so its value for Australian cyclones still needs local evaluation alongside Bureau of Meteorology warnings, which remain the official source.
CSIRO Northern Rivers Resilience Initiative · Jun 2026
Scenario testing and recommendations for future flood mitigation activities in the Richmond River catchment
The first detailed hydrodynamic model of the whole Richmond River catchment tested community- and council-proposed mitigation bundles against the 2008, 2017 and 2022 floods. For the February 2022 peak at Lismore, one bundle lowered the modelled level by 2.07 m (14.87 m to 12.80 m), though the CBD levee was still overtopped. CSIRO notes a business case, cost-benefit analysis and detailed design are still needed.
Why it matters
Read the source ↗ (opens in a new tab)A leading Australian example of catchment-scale, co-designed mitigation modelling, and an honest look at what mitigation can and cannot achieve.
Nature Communications · Jun 2026
Deep learning completes US flood hazard maps revealing millions exposed to previously unrecognized risk
Official US flood maps cover only about a third of river channels. An open-source deep-learning model learned from existing maps to complete a 30 m flood hazard map, finding 11 million more people and 4.1 million more buildings in flood zones than the official baseline, with vulnerable groups over-represented in unmapped areas.
Why it matters
Read the source ↗ (opens in a new tab)Many councils have patchy or ageing flood studies; AI can help fill gaps for prioritisation, though it does not replace detailed studies.
The wider picture
Hazard & climate signals.
Australia has warmed
1.51 °C
since national records began in 1910 (± 0.23 °C)
BoM & CSIRO, State of the Climate 2024 ↗ (opens in a new tab)Seas around Australia have warmed
1.08 °C
average sea surface temperature since 1900
BoM & CSIRO, State of the Climate 2024 ↗ (opens in a new tab)South-east cool-season rainfall
−9 %
April–October rainfall since 1994, compared with 1900–1993
BoM & CSIRO, State of the Climate 2024 ↗ (opens in a new tab)Global mean sea level has risen
22+ cm
since 1900, half of it since 1970
BoM & CSIRO, State of the Climate 2024 ↗ (opens in a new tab)More people in high-risk coastal areas
1.5 million
additional people by 2050 due to sea-level rise
Australian Climate Service, National Climate Risk Assessment (2025) ↗ (opens in a new tab)Cost of natural disasters
$38 bn/yr
average today, rising to $73bn a year by 2060 even under low emissions
Deloitte Access Economics for the Australian Business Roundtable (2021) ↗ (opens in a new tab)What I focus on
Connecting the pieces.
All-hazards risk & resilience
I work across the full hazard picture: flood, storm tide and coastal inundation, cyclone and severe storm, bushfire, heat, drought, earthquake and tsunami, from prevention and preparedness to response and recovery.
Compound & cascading hazards
I look at how hazards overlap, sequence and cascade, and why a single-hazard view can miss the risk.
Council assets & adaptation pathways
My focus is loss of service: connecting high-risk assets to adaptation pathways with clear triggers for action.
Community resilience & education
I make hazard and climate information clear, relevant and usable, so communities, community leaders and decision-makers know what it means for them.
Science into practice
I follow new research on hazards, disasters and climate, and translate it into what it means for planning, investment and preparedness in Australia.
AI, GIS & decision tools
I’m interested in how AI, GIS and practical decision tools can help people understand hazard and climate risk and explore their options.
About me
Resilience starts
with understanding.
For more than 14 years I’ve worked on disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation across Australia, Japan, Southeast Asia and the Pacific. I believe resilience starts with understanding: risk data only makes a difference when people know what it means for them.
My work spans prevention, preparedness, response and recovery, and the community, education, science and technology that make resilience possible.
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